2008 Presidential Race

[gurlnlifemagazine]

This is an open discussion thread and will change for each election.

For those of you paying attention the race for the White House started today and I think the results are a great representation of what Americans are looking forward too in a President.

Obama was won the Democratic vote and Huckable is the Republican winner.

The Democratic vote is still close between Obama, Edwards and Clinton and it looks as if they lead in that order. The Republican vote is still up in the air. Huckable won here but many are expecting a McCain/ Romney race in New Hampshire. This will be an interesting race to watch.

[savemeimdtba]

Yay Obama!

[lhrulz2007]

Well, Iowa really gave Obama a big boost. The fact that he won by a pretty large margain and won important demographics. He won amoung women caucus goers, won huge amoung young/first time caucus goers, and amoung the poor/working class. It's important for any democrat to have those votes in a general election, but the women and poor/working class, should have gone to Clinton and Edwards(respectivily) because those demographics were the ones their campaigns were working to get and felt they had.

Huckabee's win will give a huge boost in fundraising, but I think it's pretty hopeless for him in New Hampshire. I think McCain will win in New Hamshire. Also I think New Hampshire will turn out to be pretty meaningless for the Republicans. Romney seems to be crashing and burning, so New Hampshire will be McCain's, but McCain isn't competitive in the states following New Hamshire. Huckabee looks to be in good shape the primaries and caucuses following New Hampshire and I think might even run the table up until "Super-duper Tuesday."

With the Dems post-Iowa, I almost that Obama should be the presumptive nominee. Given the way Iowa went, I think Obama is in good shape in New Hampshire. He'll see a post-Iowa bump, which alone may put him ahead of Clinton. Also he got a large amount of support from independents in Iowa, which is important because independents are the biggest voting block in New Hampshire. Clinton led big in the last polls in Neveda and Florida, but the polls there are a month, and two weeks old(respectivily),
and hard to say how much ground Obama has made up there. He's in a virtual tie with Clinton in South Carolina in polls from two weeks ago, so I expect him to win there. Obama might run the table to "Super-duper" Tuesday, on that day it's hard say what will actually happen.

[savemeimdtba]

You are very well informed and that was very well said Thanks for typing it all up! I have a question.. what's super duper Tuesday?

[lhrulz2007]

It's February 5th, there are 22 Democratic Primaries/Caucuses and 20 for the Republicans. I'm sure the media will pin their title on it when it gets closer, It might end up being Tsunami Tuesday.

[gurlnlifemagazine]

Mike, will the New Hampshire voting go the same as it does normally with ballots? Are you still going for Edwards?

[lhrulz2007]

New Hampshire is just a normal primary, so it's just normal voting procedures. It's a semi-open primary, so Independents can cast their votes in Either the Democratic or Republican primary.

I still support John Edwards, but I think it's pretty much hopeless.

[cristinast85]

the whole process is a bit confusing for me, but the results and the speeches last night were... enlightening. It definitely looks to be a unique race, and I'm excited for it.

[savemeimdtba]

I did a little presidential candidate research this morning because.. I supported Obama but I couldn't tell you why - I just did, so I needed to be able to explain my reasoning should someone ask me. Now I can do that Huckabee's views are ridiculous.. I watched him on Jay Leno and I thought he was a nice, cool guy but his beliefs are completely out of whack and different from mine so ... that's settled. I like John Edwards but not as much as Obama so I'm sticking with him A lot of people on the internet support Ron Paul but I cannot figure out why... he seems to be taking a step backwards for society in my opinion. Usually people on Digg.com tend to be slightly more open minded so their backing of him confuses me.. I think it might be about the legalization of marijuana and hey, I'm all for that! But the other things he stands for don't make up for that one good quality.

Edit: Okay, I'm going to take that back - I just watchedthis video of Ron Paul and I pretty much agree with him on the issues that were covered in the video... just not some of the more conservative things he stands for.

[lhrulz2007]

Ron Paul isn't really a Republican, he's a Libertarian. He pretty much wants to dismantle the Federal Government.

[gurlnlifemagazine]

Hilary got a little emotional today, but in a good way. I think that was good to see, but she still hasn't won my vote. I know experience is a good thing to have, but I think she has too much of the bad influences. I think she knows how to "get things done" in a way I probably wouldn't like. At least Obama is so new and fresh that we won't feel like we're getting something re-fried. That's my two cents for tonight.

[lhrulz2007]

Presidents don't cry.

[lhrulz2007]

Oh My... Clinton is looking good. The numbers are still raw, but the numbers the reporting percentage is high enough that it means something. If she is able to win, everything changes and she might retake the persumptive nominee title. I'll still caution that it's still early.

[gurlnlifemagazine]

This is great. If she wins this will prove that this country is serious about being ready for change. A woman winner is HUGE! The fact that her and Obama (a black man) is so close and sooooo many voters are coming out to vote for these guys is great. I think she will win this state and I'm glad she was able to comeback. I felt for her when she got emotional yesterday and I think it was great because that shows how much harder she has it because she is a woman.

I'm still voting for Obama when the elections come our way, (Chicagoans don't go against each other), but I'm glad she's making a great run out of this.

[lhrulz2007]

This is the first real political shocker I've seen. I kinda of thought they were a thing of the past. I think with Iowa being so close to New Hampshire most people forgot, myself included, that Iowa isn't New Hampshire. A Caucus is very different from a primary. Iowa might have had high turnout, but that was relative not absolute. In New Hampshire the turnout was high aboslutly, it was still only 40%, but for a primary that is very high.

The inaccuracy of the polls is suprising, but I've formulated theories for the extreme differences. My first thought is that alot of people will say they'll vote for a black canididate, but when they're actually in the polling place they don't have the will to do it. I've seen many races where African-American candidates poll higher than they actually do. Also I think New England is much more racially intolerant than it's thought to be. It gets away with it cause there just aren't many black people there. Secondly I think the polling data became skewed post-Iowa. Even though independents are very important in New Hampshire I think they might have been given to much weight post Iowa. Also I think the youth vote also may have been given too much weight. After Iowa it was clear that the youth gave Obama almost total support and had a large turnout. In New Hampshire pollsters asumed the same thing would happen. One problem was UNH is not yet in session and the politics on Dartmouth are somewhat complex and there are only 5700 students at Dartmouth. So, the turnout was large, but possibly smaller than expected and not quite as strongly Obama.

I still find the New Hampshire Democratic result shocking. Clinton was down and out after Iowa. The Obama looked to me to have all the momentum and heading towards the nominaton. When I saw the early numbers I kept waiting for the Obama to get that big vote swing. When I saw him close in(and overtake breifly if I remember correctly) then Clinton take the lead back I knew she might have won this primary. When I looked at all the exit polling, I knew she had won. I can't point to just one figure from the polls, they were all really good for her. The one figure I will point that I think was most important was that 51% of the voters decided before Iowa. I think that alot of Clinton's early supporters didn't care what Obama had done in Iowa. I think the debate along with the choking up(I think it was contrived) the day before helped her out some, especially amoung women who saw her as being bullied by Obama and Edwards. But I don't the almost cry on Monday was critical, I think this result was probably there all along, but no one saw it.

I still think the Republican result was a mirage and McCain didn't help his cause any with his victory speech. I think McCain will experiece De Ja Vu when he goes to South Carolina. Romney's campaign has kinda of gotten pathetic, I'm waiting for him to start sucking dick for votes. I think it's between Huckabee and Giuliani. I think it'll depend on if Giuliani has succeded in building a firewall in Florida and the Feb. 5 states. I give the edge to Huckabee because I think he'll be able to win South Carolina and take Florida from Giuliani.

*I'm gonna post this as my post-New Hampshire blog on Myspace, but it was here first